The 2026–27 “Super El Niño” Forecast and What It Actually Measures
Seasonal forecasts in mid-July 2026 suggest the 2026–27 El Niño may become record-class, with Niño 3.4 peaks around ~3.6°C in raw anomalies. Using the relative RONI index (subtracting tropical background warming), models still point to a record-like event versus 1982–83.